A study by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) reaffirms the world’s growing dependence on groundwater depletion.
Although efforts to slow groundwater depletion need to be urgently accelerated, this study indicates that such efforts—in the absence of other accompanying measures—would likely lead to significant food security impacts.
The study finds that ending groundwater depletion would lead to sharp declines in food production, especially of rice and wheat, in groundwater-dependent food production systems, pushing up international prices of rice by 7.4% and wheat by 6.7%.
Higher food prices, in turn, would make food less affordable for the poor, increasing the number of people at risk of hunger by 24 million, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.
“This is the first transdisciplinary study addressing both food security and groundwater depletion issues simultaneously,” said Edwin Sutanudjaja, a study co-author from Utrecht University.
Climate change has impacted our reliance on groundwater depletion
While growing groundwater use has benefited economic development and improved food security, it has also led to severe water depletion and ecosystem degradation, reduced freshwater access, and increased inequity.
A quarter of the world’s river basins are already overexploited, including key breadbasket areas in India, Pakistan, China, Iran, the US, and Egypt.
Climate change is pushing more farmers to rely on groundwater depletion systems as rainfed farming is becoming less viable and surface flows are shrinking.
Conserving water resources can help improve food security
Given the imperative to both conserve groundwater resources and improve food security, the study used IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to simulate the impacts of ending groundwater overdraft.
It also analysed the likely effects of measures to counteract the negative food security impacts associated with halting groundwater depletion.
Nicostrato Perez, IFPRI’s lead modeller, commented: “No single intervention modelled could fully counteract the negative food security impacts from arresting groundwater depletion.
“However, investments in agricultural research and development would increase yields of water-constrained irrigated crops through better seed technologies and agronomic practices, potentially lowering global wheat prices by more than 3%.”
Vartika Singh, a co-author from IFPRI’s New Delhi office, emphasizes the importance of increased support for more effectively managing variable rainfall in a climate-constrained world.
She explained: “Targeted interventions in support of conservation agriculture, mulching, and terracing in both irrigated and rainfed areas are particularly effective in conserving water and reducing price increases of maize, which is a largely rainfed crop.
The authors concluded that a transdisciplinary approach combining regulatory, financial, technological, and awareness measures across water and food systems is essential to achieve sustainable groundwater management while preventing increased food insecurity.
