As our planet becomes increasingly reliant on space, the UK space industry is working to be at the forefront of space protection and sustainability.
Our use of space is rapidly evolving. The National Space Operations Centre (NSpOC) is preparing for the future now to ensure the UK space environment is ready for the challenges and opportunities that await.
Powered by a global network of space sensors and a team of dedicated civilian and military analysts, the NSpOC protects UK interests in space and on Earth.
Why understanding the future of the UK space environment matters
The UK space landscape is changing rapidly. Launching spacecraft has become considerably more affordable, with a 95% cost reduction from around $65,000/kg to $1,500/kg for heavy launch to Lower Earth Orbit (LEO).
Couple this with an ever-increasing reliance on satellite data and it’s easy to understand the boom in human-made objects being launched into our orbital environment.
As of April 2024, the number of active satellites in orbit reached over 9,000, and some reports suggest that by 2030, we could have more than 60,000 active satellites in space.
Understanding the future of the space environment is critical to planning our response to protect UK interests going forward, which is why the future sensor strategy and Space Domain Awareness (SDA) capability are being developed.
The four future scenarios
The NSpOC commissioned InTandem and Raytheon for support in developing a sensor and data strategy.
As part of the strategy, four scenarios have been developed using the GO-Science futures toolkit to predict how the space environment might look over the next ten years.
The cosmic bazaar
Growing private investment creates an environment where companies lead the charge, pursuing their own interests and projects independently pioneering their own projects without being tied to central government regulations
Corporate cosmos
In this scenario, major corporations and private space agencies join forces to explore space together.
It’s a unified approach where public and private sectors work hand-in-hand, propelling space exploration forward through collaboration and efficiency.
Nebular nations
Here, governments take the reins, each pursuing their own space agenda independently. It’s a mosaic of different approaches and capabilities, with limited collaboration between nations.
Global space directorate
The space environment is a coordinated effort where international alliances drive exploration and governance.
The UK is working with international partners to determine what the future of space should be.
The future of space is filled with possibilities, and by understanding these potential scenarios, NSpOC and its partners can better prepare for what lies ahead, ensuring that we continue to protect UK interests on Earth and in space for years to come.
